Roosevelt Island Red Bus Route and Scheduling Questions Raised - RIRA Planning Committee Chair Farance Has Some Answers

 Image Of Octagon Express and Local Red Bus Bunching During Morning Rush Hours

An update to this post on concerns by some Roosevelt Island residents on the Red Bus route and schedule. Roosevelt Island Residents Association (RIRA) Planning Committee Chairperson Frank Farance commented on that thread with the following remarks. From Mr. Farance:

Just a handful of responses.

First, RIOC has been a poor listener on the red bus issues. Anonymous says "RIOC, It's not rocket science. It's a bus, one street, and passengers. It's not like were running a whole city.". This is SOOO TRUE. The residents (including RIRA reps Matt Katz, Aaron Hamburger, and myself) have explained many many times how to avoid these problems, but RIOC keeps getting it wrong. I'm not sure if it is Mr. Martinez or RIOC board members on the Operations Committee that is the cause.

RIRA has explained that the 20-minute schedule was the better choice because we wouldn't have the schedule variability that we have now ... it's not just rush hour, there are problems with non rush hour, too. We've known for many years that this 15-minute schedule is impossible because it implies a 30-minute loop, which the drivers cannot complete regularly.

RIRA did *not* ask for the stop at the kiosk, RIRA wants the bus stop at the tram. It was Mr. Martinez who said that we need a stop at the kiosk because Southpoint Park will be built (in several years) and at time there will be a new route for the southern end. Sure, that makes no sense for today (and probably won't when the park is completed).

Given the available choices, RIRA preferred the west service road to be two-way for buses only (bus pickup/dropoff at subway station), which would allow red buses to line up on the east-west transverse road next to the tram. And this would allow for parking on both sides of Main Street in Southtown, it would be more convenient for Southtown residents (there aren't building entrances on the west side, so you're stuck walking around the block), and would have spent approximately $2000 (repaint yellow line and a couple street signs) rather than the $100K+ for the high-tech parking system (that really doesn't save any fuel). Are we the only New York State agency brimming with cash and money to blow on a $100K+ parking system?

I point these out because several related decisions continue to further box RIOC into even worse decisions.

Second, in response to Trevre, although it is counter-intuitive, running the red bus continuously provably produces poorer service (try a running a queuing model) because the result is that the buses will always bunch together and service will be less predictable. Years ago, RIOC President Steve Shane believed continuous buses made for better service, but both model simulation and real-world data proved him wrong. Thus, red buses need to wait a few minutes at the start of their route, just like subways and MTA buses.

Third, the Octagon Express bus doesn't make "local" stops, just like subways/MTA-buses don't make local stops, even if they aren't full. The Octagon Express bus has its own schedule and staffing load (cost) and changing the route would affect them.

Fourth, the problems with pick up and drop off at the tram and the subway are a combination of bad overall planning (present west service road routing) and bad direction by RIOC managers (Martinez, bus managers) and not necessarily the drivers fault.

Fifth, there are some problems with the drivers, but these are much easier to fix. Overall, the drivers are *not* the cause of the present schedule problems.

Sixth, having the Octagon Local and Octagon Express take off at the same time makes no sense from a scheduling and queuing perspective. The drivers could help by making sure the side LED sign says "Octagon Local" or "Octagon Express".

Matt, Aaron, and I will be meeting with RIOC staff next week. Will keep you posted.

 Mr. Farance later responded to several subsequent comments from other readers:

A couple more responses ...

Treve wants to see why continuous buses is less optimal. Here's a simple demo. Draw a circle with two dots: one at 12 o'clock and the other at 6 o'clock -- these are the two stops on a counterclockwise bus route. Start with a bus at each stop and start the buses running. When they reach the next stop, assume that the same number of passengers arrive at each stop to board the bus. The two buses would stay synchronized and the same distance apart. Because the two buses are equal distance apart, they are each picking up 50% of the passengers.

Now, give the first bus at 12 o'clock passengers more than the second bus at the 6 o'clock stop. The first bus (at 12 o'clock) has a longer wait because more passengers are boarding, meanwhile the second bus (at 6 o'clock) has already departed. The second bus continues, but picks up less of than 50% of the passengers (because it is closer behind the first bus) meanwhile the first bus picks up more than 50% of the passengers the next time around, which causes a snowballing effect: eventually the first bus picks up all the passengers while the second bus trails behind picking up no passengers.

When buses trail like this, the average passenger waiting to goes up to double the time and the bus utilization goes to 50% (the second bus becomes a wasted effort). When there are more buses in the route, average waiting time can triple or quadruple.

Because Roosevelt Island has uneven passengers in its route (more southbound passengers in the morning, more northbound passengers in the evening), this kind of *twice-daily imbalance* creates the bus-bunching and schedule variability on continuously running buses.

Both bus bunching and longer waits were observed directly and daily when the red buses ran continuously.

By establishing route synchronization points (a waiting period at start and end), the buses serve the residents more consistently and more regularly.

Anonymous 7:37 said "The bus is only $.25 cents and I'm told RIOC loses money on this venture...". Mass transit systems are not profitable merely by user fees. For example, the subways, railroads, etc. get some of their money from user fees, some of their money from a regional tax (whether you use the system or not), and other sources. The 25-cent fare is a nominal fare, with the remaining costs paid for by building ground leases (i.e., our rents/maintenance). Probably, a better solution would be a free bus rather than a more expensive bus. With a free bus, passengers could enter through both doors and decrease loading time (as they did years ago when the red bus was free).

For Anonymous 9:23, raising the bus fare doesn't necessarily help. For example, a $1 fare might decrease riders and might make the buses even LESS profitable. Less riders, means less flow of people between buildings, which diminishes the value of the buildings because there is less cohesiveness among building complexes, which translates into lower rents/etc., which has a serious impact on Island finances.

For Anonymous 3:25, Metrocards are not practical for the red bus because of the transaction fees and the installation/operations cost.

For Anonymous 8:26, running larger buses makes more sense than smaller buses. Each bus has a capacity of 60 people, so with 5 buses in rush hour (1 Octagon Express, 2 Octagon Local, 2 Firehouse Local) that's 600 people per hour or 1,800 people during the morning rush hours. With the Island population of about 14,000, 1,800 is about 13% of the population. I'm sure more than 13% of the residents are commuters, so decreasing bus capacity would affect commuters.

Also, larger buses are more efficient than smaller buses for this kind of operation. Staffing is a major operating cost, so more smaller buses makes for large staffing costs, i.e., smaller buses carry the same load but do it less efficiently with more cost.