Roosevelt Island Red Bus Questions and Answers From RIRA Planning Committee Chair Frank Farance - Will One Red Bus Route Be Eliminated During Morning Rush Hours?

Image Of Octagon Express/Local Bus Bunching During Morning Rush Hours

 Roosevelt Island Residents Association (RIRA) Planning Committee Chair Frank Farance continues his Red Bus Question & Answer dialogue with residents. From Mr. Farance:

The Roosevelt Island red bus service can be summarized by one resident's comment: ""RIOC, It's not rocket science. It's a bus, one street, and passengers. It's not like were running a whole city.". Residents have sent comments to me (transportationfeedback@riraonline.com), the Main Street WIRE, and the Roosevelt Islander Blog. Here's a summary of issues.

Issue: The schedule has problems: buses don't arrive on time; too long waiting; leave earlier than expected.

The 15-minute schedule existed for about 30 years because it was always synchronized with the tram. Once Octagon was added to the route, the schedule was always off.  RIOC continues to believe that 30 minutes is enough time for a trip around the Island, but this is not enough time, both in rush-hour and non-rush-hour, so sometimes the schedule slips.  When the schedule slips, buses start to bunch, which provides even worse service.

Issue: Why not have the buses run continuously?

It is counterintuitive, but continuously running the buses creates worse service.  Visualize a circle with two dots: one at 12 o'clock and the other at 6 o'clock -- these are the two stops on a counterclockwise bus route. Start with a bus at each stop and start the buses running. When they reach the next stop, assume that the same number of passengers arrive at each stop to board the bus. The two buses would stay synchronized and the same distance apart. which means they are each pick up 50% of the passengers.

Now, give the first bus at 12 o'clock more passengers than the second bus at the 6 o'clock stop. The first bus has a longer wait because more passengers are boarding, meanwhile the second bus has already departed. The second bus continues, but picks up less of than 50% of the passengers (because it is closer behind the first bus) meanwhile the first bus picks up more than 50% of the passengers the next time around, which causes a snowballing effect: eventually the first bus picks up 100% of the passengers while the second bus trails behind picking up no passengers.

When buses trail like this, the average passenger waiting to goes up to double the time and the bus utilization goes to 50% (the second bus becomes a wasted effort). When there are more buses in the route, average waiting time can triple or quadruple.

Because Roosevelt Island has uneven passengers in its route (more southbound passengers in the morning, more northbound passengers in the evening), this kind of *twice-daily imbalance* creates the bus-bunching and schedule variability on continuously running buses.

Both bus bunching and longer waits were observed directly and daily when the red buses ran continuously.  By establishing route synchronization points (a waiting period at start and end), the buses serve the residents more consistently and more regularly.

Issue: So what if we miss a tram/bus, there's always another one, right?

Here's an actual example that typifies the problem: a couple months ago I was waiting at Octagon for a red bus (7:00 on a weeknight). Given the frequency of the schedule, one would expect a bus within 7.5 minutes, but no bus arrived for 45 minutes. It takes about 15 minutes to get to the tram and then, oops, a missed tram so you wait for the next one.  So instead of taking 30 minutes door-to-door (from apartment to 60th Street and 2nd Avenue), it takes 1 hour and 30 minutes. Not many of us would accept a frequent hour-delay in our transportation, nor would we reschedule our lives to leave an hour earlier and arrive home an hour later, two wasted hours a day, especially living so close to Manhattan. Or said differently, what's the point of paying higher price rents when your commute is as long as Kew Gardens?

The GPS system doesn't help because you don't know you needed to leave enough time in advance until it is too late.  It has been reported that the GPS system is not always turned on.

This isn't just a problem for Octagon, it is a problem for all the residential buildings, including Southtown. The red bus service gives the Island its cohesiveness, which is a Good Thing for the community, and an important service for residents.

Issue: What about a 20-minute schedule?

RIRA reps Matt Katz, Aaron Hamburger, and I met with RIOC in December and made these recommendations to RIOC VP of Operations Fernando Martinez and his bus management staff.  All agreed that this would work.  We all agreed that regularity and reliability of the red bus service was the highest priority.  When RIOC implemented the new schedule experiment, they choose to do something different than what we all agreed to, including the ill-placed kiosk bus stop.  RIOC chose a 15-minute schedule.  Matt and Aaron said we should give RIOC a chance with the new schedule, but the problems are the same problems we've had for 6 years. The experiment is over and it has failed.  RIOC should try RIRA's suggestions.

Issue: What about the bus stops?

RIRA wanted the tram stop across from the turnaround to be THE stop for the tram for pickup and dropoff, i.e., on the same side of the street as the tram.  RIRA did NOT ask for the Kiosk stop, which is harder for elderly/disabled passengers.  The Kiosk stop was added by RIOC because Southpoint Park will be built (in several years) and at time there will be a new route for the southern end. That makes no sense for today, and probably won't when the park is completed.

The bus stops were affected by another RIOC choice counter to the RIRA's suggestions.  RIRA preferred the west service road to be two-way for buses only (bus pickup/dropoff at subway station), which would allow red buses to line up on the east-west transverse road next to the tram. This would also allow for parking on both sides of Main Street in Southtown, it would be more convenient for Southtown residents (rather than schlepping packages around the block), and would have spent approximately $2000 (repaint yellow line and a couple street signs) rather than the $100K+ for the high-tech parking system (doesn't save any fuel or add convenience).

Issue: Can't the red bus take Metrocards?

Metrocards are not practical for the red bus because of the transaction fees and the installation/operations cost.

Issue: Why not make the red bus fare higher/lower/free?

Mass transit systems are not profitable merely by user fees. For example, subways, railroads, etc. get some of their money from user fees, some of their money from a regional tax (whether you use the system or not), and other sources. The 25-cent fare is a nominal fare, with the remaining costs paid for by building ground leases (our rents/maintenance).

Raising the bus fare doesn't help. For example, a $1 fare might decrease riders and might make the buses even LESS profitable. Less riders, means less flow of people between buildings, which diminishes the value of the buildings because there is less cohesiveness among building complexes, which translates into lower rents/etc., which has a serious impact on Island finances.

Probably, a better solution would be a free bus (rather than a more expensive bus) because passengers could enter through both doors and decrease loading time (as they did years ago when the red bus was free).

Issue: Why can't the Octagon Express, if not full, pick up passengers at other stops?

The Octagon Express bus doesn't make local stops, just like subways/MTA-buses don't make local stops, even if they aren't full. The Octagon Express bus has its own schedule and staffing cost and changing the route would affect them.

Issue: It's difficult for Octagon residents to know whether they are on the local or express bus, especially if they depart at the same time.

Having the Octagon Local and Octagon Express take off at the same time makes no sense from a scheduling and queuing perspective. The drivers could help by making sure the side LED sign says "Octagon Local" or "Octagon Express".

Issue: Various complaints about drivers closing doors, not picking up, not stopping at the right spot, etc..

These represent a small portion of the problems.  We report them and, so far, the drivers seem to be responsive.

Issue: What are the real problems?

RIOC has had this problem for 6 years, including prior to Mr. Martinez' tenure.  RIOC seems unwilling to acknowledge the limitations to the 15-minute schedule.  Look at the recent red bus schedule that RIOC put out when this was announced: it was a colorful spreadsheet, but their schedule projects the bus takes the same time around the Island, whether rush hour or midnight, and that doesn't reflect reality.

If the LIRR or the airlines are late, they don't need the customers' reporting, they know there is something wrong, they self-assess, and they are proactive about managing their own schedules. One gets the impression that if the residents weren't complaining, there would be no proactive management of the buses. For example, does RIOC (like other transportation systems) publish a monthly self-assessment of bus scheduling? No, because they aren't even doing this internally. There would be a lot more talking among the dispatchers and drivers if RIOC were self-assessing their performance.

RIOC is in the process of hiring two new transportation employees - one will be responsible for managing the Red Bus operations and the other to coordinate all Roosevelt Island transportation systems. I am advised that the new Red Bus Manager is an experienced NYC Transit Authority Bus manager. Any changes in the Red Bus or other transportation issues will wait the for these new RIOC staff members and presumably, their analysis of Roosevelt Island transportation issues.

A possible change to the Red Bus service is the elimination of one bus during the morning rush hours. There are currently 5 buses operating for the morning rush hours. During the March 21 RIRA Island Services Committee meeting, RIRA Octagon representative Bill Long remarked that he did not think there would be much objection to the elimination of the Octagon express by Octagon residents although he added that the rest of the Island population might not be happy with the increased ridership on the remaining buses as they make their way south on Main Street from the Octagon to the Subway and Tram Stations.