Much Of Roosevelt Island Moved To Higher Risk Hurricane Evacuation Zone 2 This Year By NYC Emergency Management Department Map Change - Local Activist Says Higher Risk Zone In Error And Will Cause Needless Evacuation, NYCEM Rep Replies They're Listening And Appropriate Authorities Will Review
Last June, the NYC Emergency Management Department (NYCEM) announced changes to the City's hurricane evacuation zones including moving much of Roosevelt Island from Zone 3 to the riskier Zone 2.
According to NYCEM:
To mark the beginning of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the New York City Emergency Management Department today unveiled the City's revised hurricane evacuation zones. New York City Emergency Management also relaunched the Know Your Zone hurricane awareness campaign to encourage New Yorkers to find out whether they live in one of the City's six hurricane evacuation zones, and take steps to be prepared for coastal storms and hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
The City's six hurricane evacuation zones have been updated to incorporate new and improved data, as well as information from actual events to allow the City to more accurately define areas most at risk of flooding due to storm surge from a hurricane. Residents who live in these zones may be ordered to evacuate depending on a hurricane's forecast strength, track, and storm surge. If the mayor orders an evacuation of your zone, do so as directed. With these hurricane evacuation zone changes, roughly 1 million New Yorkers now live in a different hurricane evacuation zone than last year....
And:
What are hurricane evacuation zones?
There are six hurricane evacuation zones, ranked by the risk of storm surge impact, with zone 1 being the most likely to flood. In the event of a hurricane or tropical storm, residents in these zones may be ordered to evacuate.
I noticed that my zone has changed. Why is that?
Zones are updated to incorporate new, higher resolution storm surge model output from the National Weather Service. These data, combined with improved topographic data, and information from actual events, allow the City to more accurately define areas most at risk of flooding due to storm surge from a hurricane....
Roosevelt Island residents live in both Zones 2 and 3 depending upon the building in which you live. As shown in the NYC Hurricane Evacuation Zone Finder below, the Roosevelt Island buildings colored in brown are in Zone 2 and those colored in Yellow are in Zone 3.
The Octagon, Manhattan Park, Westview, Island House, Roosevelt Landings, Cornell Tech, Coler Hospital and Riverwalk 480, 475 and 460 Main Street are in Zone 2.
Riverwalk 405, 425, 455, 465 and Rivercross buildings are in Zone 3.
Click here to find the Hurricane Evacuation Zone for your Roosevelt Island address.The Roosevelt Island Hurricane Zones have changed from prior years when only the Octagon and Coler Hospital buildings were in Zone 2 as shown in 2020 NYCEM map below.
During the September 22, 2021 Roosevelt Island Emergency Preparedness workshop with the RI Public Safety Department, NYCEM and NYPD, resident and local activist Frank Farance challenged the accuracy of the new NYCEM Hurricane evacuation zone maps. Mr Farance expressed great concern that the NYCEM hurricane evacuation zone map change placing most of Roosevelt Island in the higher risk Zone 2 would cause residents to needlessly evacuate when not necessary.
NYCEM Senior Outreach Coordinator Ed Powell replied:
...I'm listening to you and I'm listening to other people who are feeding us information from points all over the city so don't think what you're saying is not being heard. Believe me, I'll see that it goes to the appropriate authorities.Here's the discussion.
Mr Farance describes himself as being:
... FEMA-trained on hurricane planning, simulation, evacuation, and recovery; a graduate of FEMA's National Emergency Management Advanced Academy; trained by the City as a hurricane shelter manager and evacuation center manager; served at shelters for Hurricanes Irene and Sandy; served at the Hurricane Maria service centers; and has 15 years as a NYCEM CERT.
Prior to the Emergency Preparedness workshop, on September 2, I asked NYCEM:
and followed up asking:... Much of the Roosevelt Island Hurricane Risk map has changed from Zone 3 to the higher risk category Zone 2 including the Cornell Tech campus. Other Roosevelt Island buildings have changed to the higher risk category 2 while adjacent buildings remain category 3.
My understanding is that the Cornell Tech campus construction included building 18 feet above the previous Goldwater Hospital campus on the same location to take into account the risk of climate change and Roosevelt Island Flooding.What changed in 2021 to move most of Roosevelt Island from Category 3 Hurricane Zone to the higher risk Category 2....
... Why are buildings adjacent to each other, a matter of a few feet apart, in different risk zones? For example, 465 Main Street is in Zone 3, 475 Main Street Zone 2. 555 Main Street is in Zone 2 and 531 Main Street is in Zone 3.A NYCEM spokesperson answered:
Why is Cornell Tech (2 West Loop Road), which built their campus 18 feet above the former Goldwater campus site location placed in the higher risk zone 2 when it had previously been in Zone 3 last year?A concerned Roosevelt Island resident with emergency management knowledge has told me he believes the new data NYCEM is using as applied to Roosevelt Island is incorrect.
Can NYCEM confirm the new data and Hurricane Zones for Roosevelt Island buildings are correct?Can NYCEM explain why Cornell Tech is in a risker zone than in the past despite building their campus 18 feet above the former site and adjacent Roosevelt Island buildings are in different Hurricane Risk Zones?
New York City’s Hurricane Evacuation Zones are drawn to represent areas of the city that may experience potentially life-threatening impacts, directly or indirectly, from storm surge resulting from a hurricane or tropical storm.The Evacuation Zones are based on data from the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest SLOSH model for the NYC area. The NHC estimates storm surge impact for a range of scenarios and NYC Emergency Management uses those scenarios to delineate our six evacuation zones.Because of the amount of time needed to evacuate large numbers of New Yorkers and the uncertainty of weather forecasts, zones are drawn conservatively so that if any portion of a block may be impacted by storm surge the entire block is drawn into the lowest appropriate zone. Other factors such as the ability of first responders to access areas during a storm may also be factored in when drawing the zones.
From the beginning, we knew we had to prepare for potential flooding and rising sea levels on Roosevelt Island and that is why we built the Cornell Tech campus with maximum sustainability and resiliency measures to withstand different risk scenarios.To protect against rising sea levels and flooding, the campus was raised seven feet, elevating it above both the 100-year and 500-year floodplains. The public open space also includes a rainwater harvesting tank, gravel trenches to hold and slow down stormwater, and bio-filtration gardens that treat stormwater runoff before it enters the river.
Below is the full critique by Mr Farance.In response to disasters, we hear many times "No one could have imagined such a circumstance or outcome" and are left with suffering huge failures, typically, with catastrophic losses of life and property.
These are Fatal Flaws, both literally and figuratively, that affects City-wide evacuation. This response seeks to avoid such catastrophic failures by identifying problems, causes, and alternate actions.
On August 2, 2021, I identified several problems with NYC Emergency Management's (NYCEM) new 2021 Hurricane Flood Zone (HFZ) map errors that greatly impact Roosevelt Island's safety, emergency preparedness, and response to coastal storms, including hurricanes, Nor'easters, and cyclones. (These problems also affect other communities within the City.)
The following is an excerpt:
The above concerns are all true and verifiable....
- They [Hurricane Flood Zone maps] have the wrong GIS data — a decade old, when other City agencies like Department of Finance have current GIS data
- The elevation data is wrong
- They are hydrologically wrong — according to NYCEM, water flows uphill
- The physics model is wrong
- They are historically wrong
Date: August 13, 2021
WHEREAS, Roosevelt Island is an Island community of 12,000 people;
WHEREAS, Roosevelt Island, with respect to FDR, was built to serve the special needs seniors and disabled, who still comprise a substantial portion of our community;
WHEREAS, Roosevelt Island previously was mostly in hurricane Zone 3, with its north and south ends in Zone 2;
WHEREAS, the prior Zone designations actually corresponded to flooding areas and land elevations;
WHEREAS, the June 1, 2021 issued Hurricane Zone maps use old GIS data (street and landform) that is a decade old, as the old Goldwater Hospital that was demolished in 2013, yet it is still on the new maps;
WHEREAS, other City agencies, such as Department of Finance, have current GIS data in their on-line maps, and Google Maps has current GIS data, which is supplied by the City;
WHEREAS, the new maps have faulty hydrological and physical modeling and incorrect landform elevation data, e.g., the new Zone 3 (Rivercross and its promenade) are downhill from the Good Shepherd Chapel (Zone 2);
WHEREAS, the new maps do not reflect actual flood data, such as there was flooding in the east and west promenade areas of Rivercross and Eastwood/RL;
WHEREAS, our Roosevelt Island community was not consulted on historical or actual data, nor was Roosevelt Island notified of the changes;
NOW THEREFORE, BE IT
RESOLVED, that RIRA requests the current maps to be corrected immediately as the hurricane season is soon reaching its peak;
RESOLVED, that RIRA requests an investigation on why these changes were made to the maps and the review process for the changes;
RESOLVED, that RIRA ask for urgent assistance from City, State, and Federal agencies, entities, and elected officials to immediately resolve the errors and promote and publish the correct information.
No word back from NYCEM yet on Mr Farance's or RIRA's concerns.
Here's some scenes of what Roosevelt Island looked like during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.
and report on Roosevelt Island damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.
Here's a NYCEM video showing the importance of being prepared for an emergency.
Here's full video of the September 22 Roosevelt Island Emergency Preparedness workshop.
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